远见的科学 The science of foresight

“远见”是一套有系统的前瞻性思维学科,学术上称之为“策略性远见”(Strategic Foresight)或“未来学”(Futurology, Futures Studies)。它强调三个主要步骤:1。环境扫描(Horizon Scanning)2。情境推测(Scenario Planning)3。异象监督(Vision Monitoring)。“策略性远见”期望让人们通过合理的推测,想象未来的各种可能性,然后回到现实制定更周全的策略,从而满怀信心迈向未来。

Foresight is a systematic forward thinking field of study, known academically as Strategic Foresight, Futurology, or Futures Studies. It emphasizes three essential steps: 1. Horizon Scanning, 2. Scenario Planning, and 3. Vision Monitoring. Strategic Foresight aims to identify all plausible future scenarios, so that we can make better strategic decisions in our current reality, in order to enter the future confidently.

远见的简史与应用 A brief history of foresight and its applications

策略性远见源自二战期间美军推测敌人动态的策略。由于它有利于辨认危机和转机,所以战后被商界和企业界采纳应用。1970年代,蚬壳石油公司成功采用远见思维,不只避免了石油危机,更把握转机晋升其世界排名。此后许多大学开办相关课程,而越来越多政府也设立研究中心,应用远见来了解全球局势的变迁,更好地制定未来政策。
Strategic Foresight started in World War 2 where US military intelligence developed a way to anticipate enemy movement. Due to its benefits in identifying threats and opportunities, it was adopted by businesses and corporations after the war. In the 1970s, Dutch oil company Shell was credited with using Strategic Foresight to minimize impacts of the oil crisis, and maximize the opportunity to propel its ranking globally. Thereafter, more universities started programmes to teach Strategic Foresight, and research centres sprang up to help governments make sense of rapid global changes for strategic policy-making.

在新加坡,策略性远见应用在以下这些机构 In Singapore, Strategic Foresight is promoted in the following organisations:

  • 策略性未来中心:源自总理办公室的一个部门,现在每两年举办一次新加坡远见周及远见会议 The Centre for Strategic Futures started from a unit in Prime Minister’s Office. It hosts the biennial Singapore Foresight Week and Foresight Conference;
  • 公共服务学院:提供远见课程,专门训练政府决策人和高管,应用远见制定政策 Civil Service College provide Foresight courses for government senior policy decision makers to apply foresight in policy-making;
  • 其他提供远见培训的机构包括:李光耀公共政策学院、新加坡国立大学(系统科学院 )、南洋理工大学(复杂学院 )Other esteemed organisations that provide Foresight training includes Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore (Institute of System Science), and Nanyang Technological University (Complexity Institute)
  • 2017年11月22-23日,在欧洲策略及政策分析机构举办的国际远见研讨会上,新加坡被形容为全球远见的 “黄金”标准 On 22-23 November 2017, at the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) international foresight conference, Singapore was described as the gold standard in foresight.

在全球,推广远见思维的主要机构包括 Globally, Strategic Foresight is promoted by the following organisations:

 

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